Episode 3 - AWOL

Losing Tribe: Ravu

To Exile: Sylvia
Voted Out: Sylvia

Anthony, Earl, Michelle & Yau-Man voted Sylvia
James & Sylvia voted Anthony
Rita voted Earl


HC's Take:

Alright, I missed the ep. A school function had me busy last night.

From what I understand, Ravu is falling apart and is no longer competitive. Too bad. They had a couple of tough loses early on that, had they gone the other way, could have easily made a huge difference despite the difference in living conditions.

Hopefully, there will be a swap soon (Lord, I never thought I would here myself say that).

All and all, I can't argue with the boot choice again. I suppose the votes on Anthony were in case Sylvia had hidden immunity, but what was the deal with Rita's vote? Is she completely out of the loop?

Other than that, there really aren't any observations I can make, but I have some questions.

1. Are we getting any more insight into the structure of Moto? These folks haven't really been put to the test so any groupings could still be very flexible.
2. Would Moto stick together if there was a swap?
3. Any indications as to who the key decision makers are in either tribe?

I guess that's it for now. Sorry, I promose to watch next week.

HC

Episode 2 - Ravu's Problems Aren't Over Yet

Losing Tribe: Ravu

To Exile: Earl

Voted Out: Erica

James, Michelle, Mookey, Rita, Silvia & Yau-man voted Erica

Anthony & Erica voted Sylvia

First off, I think Erica was fine as a boot. She is an issolated player that can be removed without raising the ire of anyone in the camp. Heck, even her only former ally in James was a chief proponent for her eviction. What I found interesting was Anthony's counter-play to get rid of Sylvia. He seemed to feel he had Rita's vote and potentially two others but they weren't there for him in the end. Perhaps the others got cold feet and didn't want to risk the tie, but why was Anthony out of the loop? Who was his four and, I think more importantly, who was the four that were so rock solid in voting Erica that they couldn't be swayed?

I likely wasn't paying as much attention as I should have and missed who was in some of the groups in the post loss discussions. Obviously, James and Silvia were firmly voting Erica. I think I have to also add Mookey. Anthony had Erica and, he thought, Rita. That leaves Michelle and Yau-man to split between the two groups. I thought it interesting that Yau-man appeared absent for all the conversations.

I don't know, but what I don't like is who is appearing to be controlling the game here. James was foolish in dumping on Erica so quickly after they were allies just a few days ago. He is unlikely to get in tight with any group now, yet he and Mookey seemed to have enough influence to get Erica out of there. I also don't like that others, besides Silvia, are not stepping into a leadership roll. This tribe needs a respected leader and that isn't Silvia or James. Unfortunately, I'm worried others might think it a good strategy to hide behind them. This type of play is not a good idea as is likely to intefere with this tribe gelling.

So in the end, I'm good with the boot but I'm less high on this tribe getting their act together. The bad news is they've got to get their act together soon or the potential for disaster for the lot of them is significant. The good news, the divisions and bitterness in the tribe don't seem strong. They are coming to the crossroad very quickly.

As for Moto, I have no take on them at all, other than sending Earl to Exile was not the right decision. It is unlikely to be a big deal, but they should have sent Silvia again only to keep the pool of who might have hidden immunity down to one. Guessing who has this powerful weapon down the road could easily turn out to be very important

One thing I do like. It appears both tribes are trying hard to bury the other. The tribe that can stay focused on that instead of internal battles is likely the one to come out on top.

HC

Episode 1 - When "Askew" Is A Big Word

Well, here we go again, but I've got to say, I have a good feeling about this crew. Instead of half populating the island with young, twenty-somethings, they seem to have gone for more of a cultural mix. Perhaps the producers have learned something from the success of Cook Islands. The average age seems older and the background more diverse. I'm actually, cautiously, optimistic.

This time 'round we start with nineteen players (apparently due to a last minute bail out that left Probst and company scrambling). They spent two nights on one beach living in relative luxury being provided with lumber, tools, and plans to build one kick-ass settlement.

But you know that isn't going to last. Day three saw them split up. Having being identified as a leader, Sylvia was told to split up the tribes. She herself was sent to Exile Island, after which she would join the tribe that lost the immunity/reward challenge (quite the raw deal if you ask me). Further more, the losing tribe would be moved to a new beach with barely any supplies.


Here's how the tribes shook down.

Moto: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre (aka: Dreemz), Edgardo, Gary (aka: Papa Smurf), Liliana, Lisi & Stacey.
Ravu: Anthony, Earl, Erica, James (aka: Rocky), Jessica, Michelle, Mookey, Rita & Yau-Man
Exiled: Sylvia

Sylvia seemed to go through efforts to create two fairly balanced tribes (she herself didn't appear to be in any kind of alliance) which showed in the closely fought challenge.

Ravu lost the challenge, however, and voted out Jessica.

Votes:
Anthony, Earl, Michelle, Mookie, Rita & Yau-Man voted Jessica
Erica voted Yau-Man
James voted Mookie
Jessica voted Rita

HC's Take:

It's tough enough trying to remember who is who (especially with nineteen players!) let alone figure out potential voting blocks, but the show clearly showed Erica make an early pact with Jessica (too early in my opinion). It was also very clear that the two ladies had James in their corner. However, popular consensus of the tribe (lead by Yau-Man) was leaning to Jessica who performed poorly during the challenge. Erica knew Jessica was the target and ran straight to James. It's possible that any counter-play on their part wasn't shown, but it sure appears that they did little to try and steer the vote in another direction. Foolish on their part as the six that voted Jessica are hardly a tight crew (Anthony in particular seemed reluctant on the idea). It's possible they may have gotten something else to happen. Scattering their votes around the way they did doesn't accomplish anything.

Personally, I agree with the call made by the majority. Tribe harmony is the key here. It's not that Jessica was particularly disruptive, but she represents the path-of-least resistance. I don't think anyone really stands out right now as bringing the tribe down, so she makes a good, relatively easy, boot.

It will be interesting to observe how Sylvia is greeted upon her return from Exile Island, but I think she will get along well with the dominant group on this tribe. James will likely fall into a grunt roll and will be worth keeping for a while, but Erica should feel pretty uncomfortable in her position. Unless someone else really sticks themselves out there, she is the next logical boot from this tribe. All and all, the potential for this tribe to gell well is there.

It will also be interesting to see how the haves vs. the have-nots will work out. I'm not sure having so much provided for them is going to work to Moto's advantage. It is going to be very difficult to build a strong sense of team if you have it too easy. As long as Ravu can keep themselves fed and hydrated, they stand a very good chance of getting the better over Moto.

HC

Survivor Strategy 5.0

What a long and crazy road it's been.

My obsession with Survivor began in their second season, Survivor-Australia. Specifically the Jerri vote. Before that I was only a casual watcher, mostly there because my wife had been going on about the show since Borneo (which I completely missed due to it being a summer fill in - I just don't watch TV in the summer). When Jerri got the boot and it was clear that we had a crew of people actually playing a game as opposed voting for a prom queen, I became hooked.

Over the years my interests have waxed and waned with each season. When players were stupid, petty and vindictive, I tuned out, but when there was actual game play going on (whether it was good, bad or ugly) I was right back into it. As with most of my obsessions, they manifested themselves into reams of text, charts and graphs which are still all kicking around at my website.

Survivor Strategy 1.0

After half a dozen seasons or so posting analysis there my enthusiasm for the project began to finally temper a bit. For a season (S7 - Pearl Islands) I merely contented myself with posting a my favourite Survivor Board - Voted Off.

Survivor Strategy 2.0

With the prospect an All-Star edition (S8) I became excited again and started up the voting analysis once more but it soon become apparent that season was not exactly going to be filled with brilliant game play. After the miserable conclusion to S9 (Vanuatu) I packed in the website and little has happened there since. But I was dragged back during S11-Guatemala through a friend's blog.

Survivor Strategy 3.0

The previous season, S10-Palau, was a refreshing joy to watch despite all the good players ending on the same tribe making the first half of the season incredibly lopsided causing the Ulong tribe (led by the mysteriously fan-popular Stephanie and Bobby Jon) to go down in well deserved agony. It was great, but what does CBS do? They bring back the leaders of the lamest tribe of all time for the next season which, predictably, turned out to be one of the lamest seasons of all time. Go figure? Well, I was not to be deterred, even when AJV found he could no longer keep the blog going. I had already created a movie blog with Rotten Tomatoes, so I decided to pick it up there.

Survivor Strategy 4.0

I began posting regularly again for S12-Exile Island and S13-Cook Islands - one lame and one good season (I'll leave you to decide which I thought was which).

So with S14-Fiji around the corner, here I am at Blogger, trying to spread the word that Survivor doesn't have to be about petty, juvenile, egos trying to decide who the coolest kid on the beach is. It can be a game and, perhaps, it can actually be a game that can be played well.

I invite you to join the discussion.

HC