Episode 14 - Well, At Least He Got A Truck

Winner: Earl

Tribal Council #1:

Immunity: Yau-man

Voted Out: Boo

Votes:
Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man voted Boo
Boo voted Dre

Who's Left: Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man

HC's Take: Why aren't Boo, Cassandra and Dre voting Earl out at this stage? Answer, they don't know any better.

Tribal Council #2:

Immunity: Dre

Vote Out: Yau-man

Votes:
Cassandra, Dre & Earl voted Yau-man
Yau-man voted Cassandra

Who's Left: Cassandra, Dre & Earl

HC's Take: First off, was anyone shocked by Dre not giving up immunity? Though, his fate with the jury was sealed the moment he reneged on the deal with Yau-man. Second, Earl did the right thing in not forcing a tie in voting with Cassandra. After all, he's already won at this point, but it would have been interesting if this game went to the traditional final two if Earl would have been willing to let his only ally in the game go without a fight?

Tribal Council #3:

The usual hypocrisy from the jury (what planet are Alex and Lisi on anyway), but in the end it was a unanimous vote for Earl to win.

HC's Take: Earl was easily the best player in this game and the deserved winner. He ran the show since the merge and, with the knuckleheads that represented his opposition, had pretty much won this game since the tribes swapped.

If Earl was my favourite from this season, Alex was easily my least. The man bemoans that he was beaten by inferior players yet seems to be ignorant of the fact that Moto (his original tribe) was up six to four at the merge and was then handed Ravu's number three player on a platter putting them up six-three. That's twice the numbers, Alex, and you still couldn't turn it into a win for your side. Note how different this was from Marquesas, who was actually up seven-two to see John and Tammy go down due in a coup from the tertiary players in their tribe (Neleh, Paschel and Kathy). Alex went down not from a coup, but from his own apathy towards tribe mates (specifically Stacey and Boo) who migrated to Earl and Yau-man because, at least, they treated them with some measure respect.

I certainly didn't agree with all of Earl's moves, but he certainly was the better player.

All and all, I enjoyed this season (man, that's two in a row!). I particularly liked the tone set by Earl and Yau-man that this indeed was just a game and that players shouldn't take the fact that everyone else is also trying to win personally.

HC

Episode 13 - Keep the T's, Vote the M's

To Exile: Yau-man

Immunity: Boo

Voted Out: Stacey

Hidden Immunity: Yau-man - each vote for Yau-man didn't count.

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Dre & Stacey voted Yau-man
Earl & Yau-man voted Stacey

Who's Left: Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man

HC's Take:

You had to know these guys couldn't keep a secret!

I'm going to back track for a bit here, but I will get to this episode soon enough.

Something I usually do, but neglected to do this time around, is divide each of the players into one of four groups right after the merge. I didn't do it this time because things were so volatile for the first couple of boots after the merge, that it would have been a lot of guess work, and then there didn't seem much of a point once things had shaken down.

But there is a point now that I will be getting to. The four categories are...

Nash Type (N-players): The dominant duo in the game.
Dominant Type (D-players): Those that fill out the dominant alliance (to a max of four in the dominant alliance).
Tertiary Type (T-players): Those in league with the dominant alliance but not actually in that top three or four.
Minority Type (M-players): Everyone else.

Here is how it broke down right after the merge.

N-players: Earl & Yau-man
D-players: Cassandra & Michelle
T-players: Boo & Stacey
M-players: Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Mookie

This essentially defines the Survivor social totem, and the final jury vote is all about social stature in the game. But it isn't quite that simple. M-players have a fantastic success rate if they get into the final two. In fact, every M-player who has made it to the final jury vote has won: Vecepia, Chris, & Danni. D-players and T-players, by comparison, have an abysmal success rate. (Tom from Survivor-Palua is the only winner from these two groups, and he is an example or a rare breed I call a T-leader. There are no T-leaders in this game.)

So let's look at who's left.

N-players: Earl & Yau-man
D-player: Cassandra
T-player: Boo
M-player: Dre

Now Dre has done the interesting thing of moving himself up to a D-player, and may even be an N-player by the end, but I'll leave him in his original category to illustrate my point. M-players can win, D-players and T-players can't. Earl and Yau-man need to be think about who they want with them in that final jury vote. That player is not Dre! I know what your saying: Everyone hates Dre and he stabbed his own people. That may all be true, and I'm not saying that if it were a choice between Earl and Dre that I would be putting my money on Dre. What I am saying is, if I were Earl, I would rather have the jury choosing between me and Stacey, me and Cassandra. I would even feel more confident between Earl and Yau-man than I would between Earl and Dre. Dre is a wild card that Earl doesn't need.

Last episode I put out the argument that if keeping Dre around keeps Cassandra loyal then it may just be worth the risk. It is obvious from this vote that Cassandra's loyalty is not there (and hats off to her for it). The reason for keeping Dre is gone, and Earl and Yau-man even had the opportunity to remove him without the help of anyone else in this episode by simply putting their two votes his way instead of on Stacey.

Boom! bye-bye Dre. Cassandra may be mad, but what's she gonna do? Ride third to Stacey and Boo? No way! Getting rid of Dre stabilizes the structure of this game and when you add to it that Dre has a far better chance of actually winning this thing then Stacey, Boo, Cassandra, and perhaps even Yau-man, it clearly makes Dre the right choice for Earl and Yau-man to send walking.

What I think may be happening, though, is that Earl feels he's hedging his bets with Dre. Dre sees he, Cassandra and Earl in the final three, and Earl likely knows this. As well, Earl probably sees Yau-man as his biggest threat in the final jury vote and perhaps, secretly, wouldn't mind seeing Yau-man go as long as it appears Earl was trying to save him. As a jury member, Yau-man would almost certainly vote Earl to win.

Clever, but not necessarily smart. Earl would beat Yau-man in a final vote anyway and Dre represents nothing but potential grief. Earl stands a good chance to win either way, but I believe his odds are better if he had played this more straight up and sent Dre out of here.

HC

PS: I just want to add, though I disagree with some of the play, what I am really enjoying seeing are these folks actually out there treating this like a game. No guilt trips or grumbling. Just move and counter-move. I don't even think I've heard once any discussion of who "deserves" to go to the end (actually, something like that may have come out of Mookie's mouth). Each player left is simply doing what they think is in their own best interest and not begrudging the others for doing the same.

How refreshing is that!

Episode 12 - The Pros and Cons of Honesty

To Exile: Earl

Immunity: Boo

Voted Out: Alex

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man voted Alex
Alex voted Yau-man

Who's Left: Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man

HC's Take:

A rather predictable episode with a predictable result. Alex tried to swing the vote against Yau-man, trying to catch him off guard so he wouldn't use the immunity necklace. Not a bad idea, but the hysterical thing was that Earl was in on the conversation. Come-on folks, you have got to know by now that anything Earl knows, Yau-man knows.

What I did find interesting, though, was that Cassandra actually appeared to be mulling the option over in her mind. There seemed little doubt which way she would go, but just the fact that she at least weighed the option is something of note. She may not be that passive-predictable player I have her pegged out to be. Right now, joining up with Alex and Stacey just wouldn't be of any advantage. She is sitting, at worst, third in her alliance and she has to know it. But what about when it's down to five, especially if Stacey and Dre are the two she's teaming up with? If they caught Yau-man at five with that mix, Cassandra would be the one running this game. If she at least contemplated the move on Yau-man now, wouldn't it be even more attractive at five? The thing is, any such move requires it being done in secrecy, and if there's one thing this current group is bad at it is in keeping a secret.

Dre's position is also interesting. Personally, I agree with Yau-man that, ideally, it is Stacey that I would want in there as the fourth. Not because she is the "weakest" but because it is someone Cassandra would be less likely to vote with. Picture the situation at five with Earl, Yau-man, Cassandra, Stacey and Boo. Would Cassandra team up with Stacey and Boo to attack Earl or Yau-man? No way. It would represent a lateral move on her part and wouldn't progress her in the game. Now replace Boo with Dre. Now, would it be in Cassandra's advantage to team up with Dre and Stacey to boot Earl or Yau-man? Absolutely! Cassandra and Dre would now be running the show, with Cassandra the one most likely to finish on top.

So, ideally, I would like to get rid of Dre next, but the world is far from ideal, isn't it. Cassandra wants Dre in this game and you want Cassandra's loyalty. Keeping Cassandra loyal should be the primary motivator for Earl and Yau-man at this stage of the game. If Cassandra stays loyal, they maintain control of the game. If she turns, things will go south for them in a hurry. So here's the question, does allowing Dre to go deeper into the game increase or decrease the chance of Cassandra turning? I can't say. This is a personal call that has to be made on the ground, but it seems to me that Earl has made the decision to keep Cassandra happy by taking Dre deep. Only time will tell if this was the right call.

Earl made an interesting comment this episode. He said something about one of the most important things he's learned about this game is to be honest. I agree - to an extent. Earl's strength is how he has played this straight up. He has learned that a well place truth is worth a dozen lies, and it is the failure to learn this lesson that was the downfall of the Four Horsemen. But this can only be taken so far, and Yau-man has taken it past the point of advantage. Yau-man has got to stop talking about how comfortable he is in his position and how he doesn't feel vulnerable. I know he is just being honest but it is not playing well with his tribemates. He needs to be a bit of a better politician, so I'm going to help him out.

Repeat after me.

Jeff: So, Yau-man, how comfortable do you feel in your position.

Yau-man: The one thing this game has taught me is to not take anything for granted. Things can turn on a dime, Jeff, and I have my bag packed just like everyone else here.

Now was that so hard?

HC