Episode 12 - The Pros and Cons of Honesty

To Exile: Earl

Immunity: Boo

Voted Out: Alex

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man voted Alex
Alex voted Yau-man

Who's Left: Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man

HC's Take:

A rather predictable episode with a predictable result. Alex tried to swing the vote against Yau-man, trying to catch him off guard so he wouldn't use the immunity necklace. Not a bad idea, but the hysterical thing was that Earl was in on the conversation. Come-on folks, you have got to know by now that anything Earl knows, Yau-man knows.

What I did find interesting, though, was that Cassandra actually appeared to be mulling the option over in her mind. There seemed little doubt which way she would go, but just the fact that she at least weighed the option is something of note. She may not be that passive-predictable player I have her pegged out to be. Right now, joining up with Alex and Stacey just wouldn't be of any advantage. She is sitting, at worst, third in her alliance and she has to know it. But what about when it's down to five, especially if Stacey and Dre are the two she's teaming up with? If they caught Yau-man at five with that mix, Cassandra would be the one running this game. If she at least contemplated the move on Yau-man now, wouldn't it be even more attractive at five? The thing is, any such move requires it being done in secrecy, and if there's one thing this current group is bad at it is in keeping a secret.

Dre's position is also interesting. Personally, I agree with Yau-man that, ideally, it is Stacey that I would want in there as the fourth. Not because she is the "weakest" but because it is someone Cassandra would be less likely to vote with. Picture the situation at five with Earl, Yau-man, Cassandra, Stacey and Boo. Would Cassandra team up with Stacey and Boo to attack Earl or Yau-man? No way. It would represent a lateral move on her part and wouldn't progress her in the game. Now replace Boo with Dre. Now, would it be in Cassandra's advantage to team up with Dre and Stacey to boot Earl or Yau-man? Absolutely! Cassandra and Dre would now be running the show, with Cassandra the one most likely to finish on top.

So, ideally, I would like to get rid of Dre next, but the world is far from ideal, isn't it. Cassandra wants Dre in this game and you want Cassandra's loyalty. Keeping Cassandra loyal should be the primary motivator for Earl and Yau-man at this stage of the game. If Cassandra stays loyal, they maintain control of the game. If she turns, things will go south for them in a hurry. So here's the question, does allowing Dre to go deeper into the game increase or decrease the chance of Cassandra turning? I can't say. This is a personal call that has to be made on the ground, but it seems to me that Earl has made the decision to keep Cassandra happy by taking Dre deep. Only time will tell if this was the right call.

Earl made an interesting comment this episode. He said something about one of the most important things he's learned about this game is to be honest. I agree - to an extent. Earl's strength is how he has played this straight up. He has learned that a well place truth is worth a dozen lies, and it is the failure to learn this lesson that was the downfall of the Four Horsemen. But this can only be taken so far, and Yau-man has taken it past the point of advantage. Yau-man has got to stop talking about how comfortable he is in his position and how he doesn't feel vulnerable. I know he is just being honest but it is not playing well with his tribemates. He needs to be a bit of a better politician, so I'm going to help him out.

Repeat after me.

Jeff: So, Yau-man, how comfortable do you feel in your position.

Yau-man: The one thing this game has taught me is to not take anything for granted. Things can turn on a dime, Jeff, and I have my bag packed just like everyone else here.

Now was that so hard?

HC