Episode 7 - It's An All Guy Affair

To Exile: Earl

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Rocky

Votes:
Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Lisi voted Rocky
Mookie & Rocky voted Lisi

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Edguardo, Lisi & Mookie

HC' Take:

With every episode, I am more convinced that Rocky should have gone a long time ago. Edguardo made the point that he felt Rocky's negativity likely played no small part in Ravu's pitiful record. The majority of challenges are about teamwork. In that light contributing positively towards the group is more important than how much muscle you bring to the table. In this testosterone filled season, that seems to have been forgotten. The only problem I have with the boot is that Rocky made the jury (oh, why couldn't he have gone last week). I'm also good with Dreemz decision to not vote Lisi. He can't depend on Alex and Eguardo to work with him, but Rocky and Mookie hardly present a better option. They certainly are not of enough value for him to risk the outcome of a tie vote on. Right now, Dre's best option is to do what he can to make the merge and then to re-explore his options at that time.

VS.

With the traditional merge only one more boot away, this is really shaping up to be battle between two pairs: Earl & Yau-man, Alex & Edguardo. Their success or failure is, as always, going to be dependent on their ability to build a solid supporting cast, so let's looking at that supporting cast.

Earl/Yau-man: Michelle, Cassandra
Alex/Edguardo: Lisi, Boo, Stacey
Free Agents: Dre, Mookie

At first it looks like Alex/Edguardo have the edge, but there are a number of disadvantages facing them.

1. At least one more player is likely to go before the merge and if Earl and Yau-man have their wits about them, they should throw the next challenge and boot Boo. In fact, as pointed out by KFG last week, they should have already started throwing challenges.
2. As far as perceived threat goes, Alex/Edguardo rank way higher than Earl/Yau-man, and season after season have shown us that players are all over who they perceive as a threat (ie: young, strong, males). Free agents like Mookie and Dre are more likely to drift toward the Earl/Yau-man camp. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alex/Eguardo's whole support structure disappear from under them because of this. This brings me to the next point.
3. Michelle and Cassandra are far more dependable than Lisi, Boo & Stacey. These last three players have already demonstrated themselves to be both aggressive and shortsighted - a very dangerous combination for anyone that is relying on them. Survivor's most successful players have been able to fill the supporting rolls in their alliances with passive-predictable players. Michelle and Cassandra could easily be these players. Lisi, Boo and Stacey are almost certainly not.
4. And, just to add insult to injury, Yau-man has hidden immunity and is even crafty enough to construct a fake totem and stick it in the ground in it's place. This could easily be the final nail in the coffin for their competition.

My money is on Earl and Yau-man taking this deep.

HC

Episode 6 - Testosterone Overload

Right off the top, the tribes were called to an apparent reward challenge. There, Probst asked a player from each tribe to step forward. After Earl and Edguardo did so, they were told they were picking new tribes. They each picked in turn, the rule being they had to select their person from the other tribe. Here's how the picks went.

New Ravu: Edguardo->Mookie->Alex->Rocky->Dre->Anthony

New Moto: Earl->Boo->Michelle->Cassandra->Yau-man->Stacey

Lisi was left unpicked and sent to Exile Island, later to join whichever tribe loses the immunity challenge after they voted someone out.

To Exile: Lisi

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Anthony

Votes:
Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Mookie & Rocky voted Anthony
Anthony voted Rocky

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Lisi, Mookie & Rocky

In Ravu, Anthony made a last ditch attempt to swing the vote to the volatile Rocky but it was too little too late. Alex, clearly the leader, had to decide whom to pull over as their fourth. Explaining his reasons in a confessional (Rocky is too unpredictable and Anthony had his head out of the game) he chose Mookie. In Moto, Cassandra jumped when given the opportunity to join up with Earl and company leaving Boo and Stacey on the outside.

HC's Take:

Let's start with grouping the members of these two tribes. It's pretty easy now.

Moto: (Cassandra->Earl<=>Yau-man<-Michelle), Boo<=>Stacey
Ravu: Edguardo<=>Alex<-Dre, Mookie<=>Rocky, Lisi

What's interesting about how the tribes split is that the folks in charge at both tribes have their best people with them. Earl seemed to have a good relationship with Anthony but he's gone. Alex's best ally is Edguardo but he was certainly feeling uncomfortable with Lisi and Stacey, and likely by extension, Boo. I would take Dre over any one of these three any day. What will be interesting to observe next episode is how Lisi is received and, if Ravu loses another immunity challenge, who it is they boot. (In Moto, it's hard to imagine them not booting Stacey.) What is interesting in the end is that the alliances that are being formed now (especially in Moto) may be stronger than what we had before the swap.

Anyway, on to the boot. Personally, I don't think Rocky provides nearly as much to winning challenges as folks seem to think he does. The guy's intense, but he more than offsets that with volatility and general "boneheadedness". Anthony, in the meantime, provides a lot of support on the home front and that shouldn't be undervalued. Like I said, in challenges, I think it's a wash between these two.

So that brings us to who would make the more stable alliance mate? This is tougher than it might appear. Rocky seems tight with Mookie, but how tight is he with the Ravu ex-patriots: Earl, Michelle & Yau-man? My guess is not very, but he is a tough player to predict the actions for. In the meantime, Anthony is a more predictable player but may go back to Earl and company come a merge if given the opportunity. Again, it's close to being a wash.

So that brings us to the final factor, who contributes more to producing a functional (and therefore winning) tribe. For me, this player is Anthony. Unfortunately, Anthony gave the impression that he had already checked-out of this game which is what Alex gave as his reason for not bringing him into his alliance. If Anthony had showed some of the fire that he showed in that final tribal council earlier, I strongly suspect that it would have been Rocky taking the walk the other night.

And the tribe would have been better off for it! Ravu is now on testosterone overload. They have too many leaders and too many negative personalities (especially once Lisi returns). To have removed Rocky at this stage would have made the dynamic of the group better. I wouldn't be surprised if Ravu continues to lose challenges because of this.

Questions of the Week:

1. What do you think of each player's pick during the swap?


2. What two players most benefited from the swap?


3. What two players (other than Anthony) were most screwed by the swap?

HC

Episode 5 - Delayed, But Here

To Exile: Earl

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Rita

Votes:
Anthony, Earl, James, Mookie & Yau-man voted Rita
Rita & Michelle voted Anthony

Who's Left:
Moto: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Edgardo, Lisi, Stacey
Rotu: Anthony, Earl, James, Michelle, Mookie, Yau-man

I was able to catch the episode in our hotel room in Washington.

Ravu continues its losing streak that must now be rivalling Ulong from Survivor-Vanuatu. Ulong, at least, won a couple of rewards as I recall. The preview seems to indicate there is a swap coming up next episode. Thank God!

Michelle and Rita clearly had some sort of relationship, but it was the boys calling the shots and they seemed to feel removing Rita left them with the most functional tribe. Over at Moto, Alex was trying to convince his alliance mates to treat Cassandra and Dre with at least a bit of respect as they could easily get burned by them flipping down the road. His pleads fell on deaf hears on all but Edguardo. Lisi seemed to actually enjoy the thought of a flip, never doubting for a second that they will end up on top. Bizarre! In a confessional, Dre said straight out that he will flip at the first opportunity and who can blame him.

HC's Take:

The boot was another lame one. I find it hard to disagree with, but it leaves a bit of a bitter taste as part of the equation of the boots seems to be trying appease Rocky (James). It's not that Rocky holds any real power in this tribe, but Yau-man and Earl see him as their workhorse in the challenges and the tribe is strongest if they can keep him functioning as well as they can. They're probably right, but it would have been interesting to have seen how this tribe would have fared if they removed Rocky right at the start instead of all the people he doesn't get along with.

Lisi's and Stacey's obnoxious behaviour towards Dre and Cassandra is incomprehensible to me, not just from a gaming standpoint (the pitfalls being clearly spelled out by Alex) but just from treating another human being with some dignity. It's sad. That the Moto Five will fall is obvious, but I hope that Alex and Edgardo aren't the first to pay the price for Lisi's and Stacey's arrogance.

I like the way that Earl was helping Yau-man to find hidden immunity, even though it didn't pan out. I hope these two will continue to work together, though with a swap coming it will be interesting to find out at which camp they will end up when each of them knows pretty much where hidden immunity is.

Looking forward to this week's ep. After the swap, this game should really begin.

HC

Episode 5 (and maybe 6) - A Pre-Post

Well, here's another episode or two that I'm going to miss. The fam and I are off on vacation, heading for sunnier climes. This Thursday I will be in your fair capital of Washington ('your' if you are American that is) and by the following Thursday I will be with my parents in Florida.

I'm not sure if I will get a chance to post stuff or not. If I can, I will, but I if I can't feel free to add any observations or discussion by adding a comment to this post.

Back soon ...

HC

Episode 4 - And Just Like That, We're Tied

Evacuated: Gary
To Exile: Yau-man


Losing Tribe: Ravu


Voted Out: Liliana

Votes:
Alex, Boo, Edgardo, Lisi & Stacey voted Liliana
Dreemz & Liliana voted Cassandra
Cassandra voted Lisi

Gary's health continued to worsen until he was forced to leave the game. Despite that, the tribes went to an immunity challenge as per normal and, once again, Moto won, but with a twist - to keep immunity, they had to switch camps with the other tribe. Obviously from the outcome above, they decided to pass immunity to Ravu.

The episode, and the voting, revealed an obvious alliance in Alex-Boo-Edgardo-Lisi-Stacey and they had two people they were going between. Alex championed voting out Cassandra, obviously the least competative of the group in the challenges. However, Lisi argued to remove Liliana, a strong competitor and obvious threat. You can see where the votes went.

HC's Take:

The decision to switch camps or vote someone out is a tough one. One the one hand, you have the oportunity to be up eight to six on your opposition and with recent episodes usually having swaps, being up in numbers early is very important. On the other hand, plenty of food, water and sleep has played no small part in Moto being in the position that they are. If they switched camps and there was no swap, they could easily find themselves in the same position as Ravu in a few more tribal councils.

The thing is, the mistake of voting out Liliana overshadows any mistake they may have made with their decision as to what to do with Probst's surprise anyway. The over-convidence displayed by Lisi was almost beyond belief. Lady, you are tied and anything can happen tomorrow including a swap that will likely see your precious alliance broken up. Moreover, the booting of Liliana by this group of five is sure to create unnecessary divisions in this tribe. Cassandra would have been an easy boot that would have left very few ill feelings. Combine that with the fact that the tribe is physically stronger with Cassandra gone instead of Liliana and it becomes obvious this boot was a mistake. Whatever threat that Liliana represents to Lisi and company, can be dealt with later. Right now the priority should be to bury Ravu.

I'm glad this episode finally gave us some insight into Moto. Lisi was completely unimpressive. Alex seems to be the only one with his wits about him. He recognized right away that losing Gary was a bad thing (unlike Lisi) and that booting Liliana was a dumb move. He did the right thing in vocalizing his objections to his alliance but, in the end, voting with them when they couldn't be swayed. That we were shown this alliance outright is almost a sure sign that they won't be around in the end, but I hope Alex can land on his feet when the rug gets pulled out from under them.

HC