Episode 7 - It's An All Guy Affair

To Exile: Earl

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Rocky

Votes:
Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Lisi voted Rocky
Mookie & Rocky voted Lisi

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Edguardo, Lisi & Mookie

HC' Take:

With every episode, I am more convinced that Rocky should have gone a long time ago. Edguardo made the point that he felt Rocky's negativity likely played no small part in Ravu's pitiful record. The majority of challenges are about teamwork. In that light contributing positively towards the group is more important than how much muscle you bring to the table. In this testosterone filled season, that seems to have been forgotten. The only problem I have with the boot is that Rocky made the jury (oh, why couldn't he have gone last week). I'm also good with Dreemz decision to not vote Lisi. He can't depend on Alex and Eguardo to work with him, but Rocky and Mookie hardly present a better option. They certainly are not of enough value for him to risk the outcome of a tie vote on. Right now, Dre's best option is to do what he can to make the merge and then to re-explore his options at that time.

VS.

With the traditional merge only one more boot away, this is really shaping up to be battle between two pairs: Earl & Yau-man, Alex & Edguardo. Their success or failure is, as always, going to be dependent on their ability to build a solid supporting cast, so let's looking at that supporting cast.

Earl/Yau-man: Michelle, Cassandra
Alex/Edguardo: Lisi, Boo, Stacey
Free Agents: Dre, Mookie

At first it looks like Alex/Edguardo have the edge, but there are a number of disadvantages facing them.

1. At least one more player is likely to go before the merge and if Earl and Yau-man have their wits about them, they should throw the next challenge and boot Boo. In fact, as pointed out by KFG last week, they should have already started throwing challenges.
2. As far as perceived threat goes, Alex/Edguardo rank way higher than Earl/Yau-man, and season after season have shown us that players are all over who they perceive as a threat (ie: young, strong, males). Free agents like Mookie and Dre are more likely to drift toward the Earl/Yau-man camp. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alex/Eguardo's whole support structure disappear from under them because of this. This brings me to the next point.
3. Michelle and Cassandra are far more dependable than Lisi, Boo & Stacey. These last three players have already demonstrated themselves to be both aggressive and shortsighted - a very dangerous combination for anyone that is relying on them. Survivor's most successful players have been able to fill the supporting rolls in their alliances with passive-predictable players. Michelle and Cassandra could easily be these players. Lisi, Boo and Stacey are almost certainly not.
4. And, just to add insult to injury, Yau-man has hidden immunity and is even crafty enough to construct a fake totem and stick it in the ground in it's place. This could easily be the final nail in the coffin for their competition.

My money is on Earl and Yau-man taking this deep.

HC