Right off the top, the tribes were called to an apparent reward challenge. There, Probst asked a player from each tribe to step forward. After Earl and Edguardo did so, they were told they were picking new tribes. They each picked in turn, the rule being they had to select their person from the other tribe. Here's how the picks went.New Ravu: Edguardo->Mookie->Alex->Rocky->Dre->Anthony
New Moto: Earl->Boo->Michelle->Cassandra->Yau-man->Stacey
Lisi was left unpicked and sent to Exile Island, later to join whichever tribe loses the immunity challenge after they voted someone out.
To Exile: Lisi
Losing Tribe: Ravu
Voted Out: Anthony
Votes:
Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Mookie & Rocky voted Anthony
Anthony voted Rocky
Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Lisi, Mookie & Rocky
In Ravu, Anthony made a last ditch attempt to swing the vote to the volatile Rocky but it was too little too late. Alex, clearly the leader, had to decide whom to pull over as their fourth. Explaining his reasons in a confessional (Rocky is too unpredictable and Anthony had his head out of the game) he chose Mookie. In Moto, Cassandra jumped when given the opportunity to join up with Earl and company leaving Boo and Stacey on the outside.
HC's Take:
Let's start with grouping the members of these two tribes. It's pretty easy now.
Moto: (Cassandra->Earl<=>Yau-man<-Michelle), Boo<=>Stacey
Ravu: Edguardo<=>Alex<-Dre, Mookie<=>Rocky, Lisi
What's interesting about how the tribes split is that the folks in charge at both tribes have their best people with them. Earl seemed to have a good relationship with Anthony but he's gone. Alex's best ally is Edguardo but he was certainly feeling uncomfortable with Lisi and Stacey, and likely by extension, Boo. I would take Dre over any one of these three any day. What will be interesting to observe next episode is how Lisi is received and, if Ravu loses another immunity challenge, who it is they boot. (In Moto, it's hard to imagine them not booting Stacey.) What is interesting in the end is that the alliances that are being formed now (especially in Moto) may be stronger than what we had before the swap.
Anyway, on to the boot. Personally, I don't think Rocky provides nearly as much to winning challenges as folks seem to think he does. The guy's intense, but he more than offsets that with volatility and general "boneheadedness". Anthony, in the meantime, provides a lot of support on the home front and that shouldn't be undervalued. Like I said, in challenges, I think it's a wash between these two.So that brings us to who would make the more stable alliance mate? This is tougher than it might appear. Rocky seems tight with Mookie, but how tight is he with the Ravu ex-patriots: Earl, Michelle & Yau-man? My guess is not very, but he is a tough player to predict the actions for. In the meantime, Anthony is a more predictable player but may go back to Earl and company come a merge if given the opportunity. Again, it's close to being a wash.
So that brings us to the final factor, who contributes more to producing a functional (and therefore winning) tribe. For me, this player is Anthony. Unfortunately, Anthony gave the impression that he had already checked-out of this game which is what Alex gave as his reason for not bringing him into his alliance. If Anthony had showed some of the fire that he showed in that final tribal council earlier, I strongly suspect that it would have been Rocky taking the walk the other night.
And the tribe would have been better off for it! Ravu is now on testosterone overload. They have too many leaders and too many negative personalities (especially once Lisi returns). To have removed Rocky at this stage would have made the dynamic of the group better. I wouldn't be surprised if Ravu continues to lose challenges because of this.
Questions of the Week:
- What do you think of each player's pick during the swap?
- What two players most benefited from the swap?
- What two players (other than Anthony) were most screwed by the swap?
HC
3 comments:
I felt someone owed you some comments as I watched this episode live instead of waiting for you on tape, I volunteered. I hope your vacation is or was happy.
1) With the exception of Michelle's pick of Cassandra instead of Dreamz, I think the players picked the best available given personality as well as strengths. My guess is the players got a good understanding of each other during the first 3 days and in watching challenges. Alliances from those first 3 days may have had an effect. Also I have read that it was possible that Michelle wanted at least one other woman on her tribe since this season has been so hard on female contestants.
2) I think that Dreamz and Cassandra benefited the most from the switch. Dreamz ended up with the 2 most thoughtful and strategic people from his tribe and is no longer second from the bottom on the hit list.
Cassandra ended up keeping her camp and Stacy has replaced her as the next one out on her tribe. Cassandra also has a much nicer group of people to be with.
Yau-man may rank 3rd on the list of gainers as he is now in the better camp and therefore more likely to win challenges. He's stayed with his ally Earl.
All of these 3 should now definitely hold on until the merge.
Obviously, all the former Ravu who ended at Moto were winners by getting the better camp.
3) The biggest remaining loser is Lisi, and she knows it. First, she has to live with the snakes and no food while the others get food. Now, she will have to return to the bad camp as the only female on the tribe. Her chances of winning the game are completely gone. If she survives the next 3 rounds I will be surprised.
The second biggest loser is a harder choice. Either Rocky or Lisi will be the next to go it Ravu continues its losing streak. Stacy is next to go on Moto and she certainly wasn't before. But I think the men of the former Moto (other than Dreamz are the big losers). Given this male-dominated season, one of them had a better than decent chance of winning. Now it's much less likely.
I know this is somewhat off your topic, but I find this to be the most discouraging season of survivor ever. To begin with, all but 1 of the contestants was recruited thereby shutting out the survivor fans from even competing in the game. Second, the contestants are leftovers from last season's recruits. Third, the site with the sea snakes precludes the contestants from getting away from camp as much and may limit the number of water challenges. Fourth, the unfairness and tedium of the have and have-not camps and the number of episodes of this have continued have made this season so predictable so far. So far, each reward challenge has just added another nail in the have-not camps coffin.
I find the anti-female bias in this season to be extremely unfortunate and off-putting. We have yet to get rid of a male contestant if there was a female alternative. The season started out unbalanced with males and females and marking Sylvia for elimination before first challenge just aggravated this. I understand that 2 leaders were mentioned and Sylvia felt for the smooth white stone instead of the lava rock so that Survivor had their leader. Sylvia thought there was an advantage to choosing the white rock.
I've also felt that the exile island twists prior to this season have tended to benefit the male contestants. My guess is the final 3 concept may also help male contestants. In most of the recent Survivors, the females appear to be there primarily for eye candy with little chance to win. The final endurance challenges have changed in the more recent survivors to favor strength or even length more than endurance or balance.
The most discouraging thing about the bias in this boring season that we've seen so far is that I think we will see more before we're through.
By the way, I think we're being treated to a particularly obnoxious version of the hidden immunity idol. I know that Burnett must be discouraged that it's never been played. Terry didn't use it strategically to protect his tribe and then never needed it till final 4 when his opponents chose not to unleash the idol's fury. Yul used the threat of the idol to blackmail others give his group a free pass to the final 4 and himself a pass to the final 3.
This new play the idol before the votes are counted can cause the idol to make you a target rather than a threat. If the others figure someone has the idol, one strategy is to make the idol-holder to think someone else is the target and then vote the idol-holder out with the idol. Another strategy is to make the idol-holder think he is the target so he plays the idol needlessly and then the tribe votes the former idol-holder out at the next opportunity. Even more options are available if the tribe thinks they can get the idol-holder to protect an ally with the hidden immunity idol. While all this may make "good TV," it sounds more like Gotcha than Survivor.
Thanks for the post, Sue.
I gotta agree on your take on the idol. It seems to me that it should not be played until after the votes are read, not before. I'm puzzled as to the change, unless they figured it carried too much power last season. I don't think that is really the case, Yule was just the first player that used the friggin' thing correctly.
It's hard not to notice the female bias this season, but then again, other than the Liliana boot, I've not put up a big argument against any of the tribes' decisions. There just doesn't seem as many solid, female, players this time around. Certainly all my favourites are males, and that's not usual for me.
Perhaps this is more an error in casting than anything else.
HC
This ep seemed like one of the few cases where throwing immunity would be advantageous.
If -- and it's a big if -- Earl felt comfortable in Cassandra's support, he could have architected Stacy's removal by throwing the challenge.
As it stands, the merge is likely to happen in the next one or two episodes. It was entirely possible that Anthony could have survived to the merge and rejoined as a support player to Earl and Yau. But now, it's more likely that the tribes will merge with the original Moto alliance mostly intact -- Alex, Ed, Boo can realign, with either Stacy or Lisi as fourth. They can then pull a fifth (perhaps both Lisi and Stacy will be there, if Rocky gets booted next) -- probably Mookie.
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