Announcing My Retirement

I'm announcing my retirement from the whole Survivor thing.

I've always had a tendency to be obsessive about hobbies, ride them into the ground, and then move on to something else.

I do apologize for that, but, to be fair, the Survivor obsession did last longer than most. It was obvious that I no longer cared when Survivor China premiered and I couldn't work up the desire to watch the stupid thing. The truth is, I don't think the show has anything else to show us. I don't believe there is anything else worth talking about.

But don't you worry, my obsessive nature is still raw and intact. I've began just a regular old blog called Mike's World (yes, I know, far from original) that you are more than welcome to drop in on.

Congratulations Survivor and CBS, you're show outlasted me.

HC

Episode 14 - Well, At Least He Got A Truck

Winner: Earl

Tribal Council #1:

Immunity: Yau-man

Voted Out: Boo

Votes:
Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man voted Boo
Boo voted Dre

Who's Left: Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man

HC's Take: Why aren't Boo, Cassandra and Dre voting Earl out at this stage? Answer, they don't know any better.

Tribal Council #2:

Immunity: Dre

Vote Out: Yau-man

Votes:
Cassandra, Dre & Earl voted Yau-man
Yau-man voted Cassandra

Who's Left: Cassandra, Dre & Earl

HC's Take: First off, was anyone shocked by Dre not giving up immunity? Though, his fate with the jury was sealed the moment he reneged on the deal with Yau-man. Second, Earl did the right thing in not forcing a tie in voting with Cassandra. After all, he's already won at this point, but it would have been interesting if this game went to the traditional final two if Earl would have been willing to let his only ally in the game go without a fight?

Tribal Council #3:

The usual hypocrisy from the jury (what planet are Alex and Lisi on anyway), but in the end it was a unanimous vote for Earl to win.

HC's Take: Earl was easily the best player in this game and the deserved winner. He ran the show since the merge and, with the knuckleheads that represented his opposition, had pretty much won this game since the tribes swapped.

If Earl was my favourite from this season, Alex was easily my least. The man bemoans that he was beaten by inferior players yet seems to be ignorant of the fact that Moto (his original tribe) was up six to four at the merge and was then handed Ravu's number three player on a platter putting them up six-three. That's twice the numbers, Alex, and you still couldn't turn it into a win for your side. Note how different this was from Marquesas, who was actually up seven-two to see John and Tammy go down due in a coup from the tertiary players in their tribe (Neleh, Paschel and Kathy). Alex went down not from a coup, but from his own apathy towards tribe mates (specifically Stacey and Boo) who migrated to Earl and Yau-man because, at least, they treated them with some measure respect.

I certainly didn't agree with all of Earl's moves, but he certainly was the better player.

All and all, I enjoyed this season (man, that's two in a row!). I particularly liked the tone set by Earl and Yau-man that this indeed was just a game and that players shouldn't take the fact that everyone else is also trying to win personally.

HC

Episode 13 - Keep the T's, Vote the M's

To Exile: Yau-man

Immunity: Boo

Voted Out: Stacey

Hidden Immunity: Yau-man - each vote for Yau-man didn't count.

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Dre & Stacey voted Yau-man
Earl & Yau-man voted Stacey

Who's Left: Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl & Yau-man

HC's Take:

You had to know these guys couldn't keep a secret!

I'm going to back track for a bit here, but I will get to this episode soon enough.

Something I usually do, but neglected to do this time around, is divide each of the players into one of four groups right after the merge. I didn't do it this time because things were so volatile for the first couple of boots after the merge, that it would have been a lot of guess work, and then there didn't seem much of a point once things had shaken down.

But there is a point now that I will be getting to. The four categories are...

Nash Type (N-players): The dominant duo in the game.
Dominant Type (D-players): Those that fill out the dominant alliance (to a max of four in the dominant alliance).
Tertiary Type (T-players): Those in league with the dominant alliance but not actually in that top three or four.
Minority Type (M-players): Everyone else.

Here is how it broke down right after the merge.

N-players: Earl & Yau-man
D-players: Cassandra & Michelle
T-players: Boo & Stacey
M-players: Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Mookie

This essentially defines the Survivor social totem, and the final jury vote is all about social stature in the game. But it isn't quite that simple. M-players have a fantastic success rate if they get into the final two. In fact, every M-player who has made it to the final jury vote has won: Vecepia, Chris, & Danni. D-players and T-players, by comparison, have an abysmal success rate. (Tom from Survivor-Palua is the only winner from these two groups, and he is an example or a rare breed I call a T-leader. There are no T-leaders in this game.)

So let's look at who's left.

N-players: Earl & Yau-man
D-player: Cassandra
T-player: Boo
M-player: Dre

Now Dre has done the interesting thing of moving himself up to a D-player, and may even be an N-player by the end, but I'll leave him in his original category to illustrate my point. M-players can win, D-players and T-players can't. Earl and Yau-man need to be think about who they want with them in that final jury vote. That player is not Dre! I know what your saying: Everyone hates Dre and he stabbed his own people. That may all be true, and I'm not saying that if it were a choice between Earl and Dre that I would be putting my money on Dre. What I am saying is, if I were Earl, I would rather have the jury choosing between me and Stacey, me and Cassandra. I would even feel more confident between Earl and Yau-man than I would between Earl and Dre. Dre is a wild card that Earl doesn't need.

Last episode I put out the argument that if keeping Dre around keeps Cassandra loyal then it may just be worth the risk. It is obvious from this vote that Cassandra's loyalty is not there (and hats off to her for it). The reason for keeping Dre is gone, and Earl and Yau-man even had the opportunity to remove him without the help of anyone else in this episode by simply putting their two votes his way instead of on Stacey.

Boom! bye-bye Dre. Cassandra may be mad, but what's she gonna do? Ride third to Stacey and Boo? No way! Getting rid of Dre stabilizes the structure of this game and when you add to it that Dre has a far better chance of actually winning this thing then Stacey, Boo, Cassandra, and perhaps even Yau-man, it clearly makes Dre the right choice for Earl and Yau-man to send walking.

What I think may be happening, though, is that Earl feels he's hedging his bets with Dre. Dre sees he, Cassandra and Earl in the final three, and Earl likely knows this. As well, Earl probably sees Yau-man as his biggest threat in the final jury vote and perhaps, secretly, wouldn't mind seeing Yau-man go as long as it appears Earl was trying to save him. As a jury member, Yau-man would almost certainly vote Earl to win.

Clever, but not necessarily smart. Earl would beat Yau-man in a final vote anyway and Dre represents nothing but potential grief. Earl stands a good chance to win either way, but I believe his odds are better if he had played this more straight up and sent Dre out of here.

HC

PS: I just want to add, though I disagree with some of the play, what I am really enjoying seeing are these folks actually out there treating this like a game. No guilt trips or grumbling. Just move and counter-move. I don't even think I've heard once any discussion of who "deserves" to go to the end (actually, something like that may have come out of Mookie's mouth). Each player left is simply doing what they think is in their own best interest and not begrudging the others for doing the same.

How refreshing is that!

Episode 12 - The Pros and Cons of Honesty

To Exile: Earl

Immunity: Boo

Voted Out: Alex

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man voted Alex
Alex voted Yau-man

Who's Left: Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man

HC's Take:

A rather predictable episode with a predictable result. Alex tried to swing the vote against Yau-man, trying to catch him off guard so he wouldn't use the immunity necklace. Not a bad idea, but the hysterical thing was that Earl was in on the conversation. Come-on folks, you have got to know by now that anything Earl knows, Yau-man knows.

What I did find interesting, though, was that Cassandra actually appeared to be mulling the option over in her mind. There seemed little doubt which way she would go, but just the fact that she at least weighed the option is something of note. She may not be that passive-predictable player I have her pegged out to be. Right now, joining up with Alex and Stacey just wouldn't be of any advantage. She is sitting, at worst, third in her alliance and she has to know it. But what about when it's down to five, especially if Stacey and Dre are the two she's teaming up with? If they caught Yau-man at five with that mix, Cassandra would be the one running this game. If she at least contemplated the move on Yau-man now, wouldn't it be even more attractive at five? The thing is, any such move requires it being done in secrecy, and if there's one thing this current group is bad at it is in keeping a secret.

Dre's position is also interesting. Personally, I agree with Yau-man that, ideally, it is Stacey that I would want in there as the fourth. Not because she is the "weakest" but because it is someone Cassandra would be less likely to vote with. Picture the situation at five with Earl, Yau-man, Cassandra, Stacey and Boo. Would Cassandra team up with Stacey and Boo to attack Earl or Yau-man? No way. It would represent a lateral move on her part and wouldn't progress her in the game. Now replace Boo with Dre. Now, would it be in Cassandra's advantage to team up with Dre and Stacey to boot Earl or Yau-man? Absolutely! Cassandra and Dre would now be running the show, with Cassandra the one most likely to finish on top.

So, ideally, I would like to get rid of Dre next, but the world is far from ideal, isn't it. Cassandra wants Dre in this game and you want Cassandra's loyalty. Keeping Cassandra loyal should be the primary motivator for Earl and Yau-man at this stage of the game. If Cassandra stays loyal, they maintain control of the game. If she turns, things will go south for them in a hurry. So here's the question, does allowing Dre to go deeper into the game increase or decrease the chance of Cassandra turning? I can't say. This is a personal call that has to be made on the ground, but it seems to me that Earl has made the decision to keep Cassandra happy by taking Dre deep. Only time will tell if this was the right call.

Earl made an interesting comment this episode. He said something about one of the most important things he's learned about this game is to be honest. I agree - to an extent. Earl's strength is how he has played this straight up. He has learned that a well place truth is worth a dozen lies, and it is the failure to learn this lesson that was the downfall of the Four Horsemen. But this can only be taken so far, and Yau-man has taken it past the point of advantage. Yau-man has got to stop talking about how comfortable he is in his position and how he doesn't feel vulnerable. I know he is just being honest but it is not playing well with his tribemates. He needs to be a bit of a better politician, so I'm going to help him out.

Repeat after me.

Jeff: So, Yau-man, how comfortable do you feel in your position.

Yau-man: The one thing this game has taught me is to not take anything for granted. Things can turn on a dime, Jeff, and I have my bag packed just like everyone else here.

Now was that so hard?

HC

Episode 11 - You Sunk My Battleship!

To Exile: Boo

Immunity: Stacey

Voted Out: Mookie

Votes:
Alex, Boo, Cassandra & Dre voted Mookie
Earl, Stacey & Yau-man voted Alex
Mookie voted Boo

Who's Left: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man

Build-up: The original plan of Earl's group was to vote out Alex, but Boo came up with this idea that they should create a tie just in case either Alex or Mookie has hidden immunity (even though they have no clues as to it's location). Earl agreed, figuring he'd let Boo think he values his input and figured Alex would be the one to go anyway. However, Alex confidently voted Mookie as if he knew what was up - I'm looking at you Dre - to buy himself another few days.

HC's Take:
Although Boo's plan shows folks ways of dealing with potential hidden immunity, the fact that Alex and Mookie do not have access to any clues to its where abouts makes this move a little on the silly side. If I had more faith in Boo, Stacey & Dre, I would consider the possibility that this is all a plan to get rid of Mookie so that the three of them could latch on with Alex and begin targeting Earl and company. It's not like this wouldn't be a great move on their part (it certainly would), I just have no faith that they are going to attempt such a thing. These three just aren't thinking that far ahead. For goodness sakes, the first thing Boo did when he received the first clue as to the location of the next hidden immunity was to blab it to Earl and company. Man, if anyone in this game could make creative use of hidden immunity later on it would be Boo. Why would he risk not finding it himself in a misguided attempt to suck up to Earl? Your position is fifth in this alliance, Boo. You aren't going to be moving up the ladder without knocking off the people at the top of it.

The other reason I don't see a coup coming is because of Alex's and Mookie's boneheaded move of searching through Yau-man's bags for the hidden immunity idol and then advertising the fact. How could they not see how this makes them look like the scummiest players in the game? Them trying to convince the others that Yau-man could not be trusted was self-righteous nonsense and doomed to back-fire on them. Alex, of course, caps off his performance by helping to vote out his only ally in the game - and now he wants people to trust him? Fat chance!

HC

Episode 10 - "Who Do You Most Trust?"

To Exile: Mookie

Immunity: Yau-man

Voted Out: Edguardo

Votes:
Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Stacy & Yau-man voted Edguardo
Alex, Edguardo & Mookie voted Cassandra
Dre voted Mookie

Who's Left: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Mookie, Stacey & Yau-man

This one requires a bit of explanation. Cassandra, Earl and Yau-man pulled Boo and Stacey over to their camp with the plan of voting out Alex, while the Four Horsemen (Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Mookie) were going to vote Earl. Dre, trying to play both camps through Cassandra, was told by Earl and company to vote Alex. Dre told Alex and company what was happening so the decision was made for Mookie to give Alex the hidden immunity idol he carried. Dre then promptly told Earl's group what Mookie had done causing them to switch the target to Mookie. However, they later decided that Edguardo was a better idea. The five of them (Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Stacey & Yau-man) agreed on voting Edguardo, but also agreed that Dre was to be left out of the loop. In the meantime, Alex, Edguardo & Mookie decided to shift their vote to Cassandra in an attempt to split that alliance in two. When Dre heard about this plan, he was less than enthused.

HC's Take:

After a potentially enjoyable tribal council being sabotaged last week by a stupid twist, this week we get one of the most enjoyable tribal councils in the history of the series. Why, because events were allowed to play themselves out without wrenches being thrown in by the show's producers. Are you listening CBS?

Anyway, I thought I would split my comments into groups.

Cassandra, Earl & Yau-man: Perfectly played! Especially well done was how Cassandra winning the reward challenge was used to work on Boo and Stacey. Cassandra could not have picked a more perfect trio to accompany her. This is undoubtably thanks to her, and her allies, being given some time to think about their choices. At the vote, although the irony of voting out Mookie after he handed over immunity is delicious, Edguardo was the right call. If you can't get the number one guy, you hit number two.

Boo & Stacey: Right call by these two. Stacey is guaranteed final four with Earl and company with no such assurance from the four horseman, and Boo was the four horseman's original target after the merge, so you know his standing is even worse. Besides, Stacey's and Boo's biggest assets are each other. They need to stick together and look for any opportunities to improve their positions, and they can still easily come.

Alex & Edguardo: The reward challenge should have made it clear to you guys that you aren't half the players you think you are. Question: Who is the player you most trust? Most popular answer: Earl. Question: Who is the player that thinks they are controlling the game but isn't? Most popular answer: Alex. The writing was on the wall. Again, these guys showed they don't know how to create a stable alliance. Why would Stacey come your way when you are writing off Boo? Why would Dre work with you if you want to vote off Cassandra? Get a feel for the dynamics of the group and learn to work those dynamics in your favour.

Dre & Mookie: If Alex and Ed aren't half the players they think they are, these two aren't a tenth. While they were attempting to work everyone so that Alex didn't have all the power, they completely ignored the real threats: Earl and Yau-man. Now, it's just time to warm up your seats on the jury.

Now I know that the four horseman are going to whine about how they were screwed in this game, but let's be honest. They were handed a gift with Michelle last week and they failed to take advantage of it. Earl lost his number three in his alliance and was able to work to fill the hole. We know who deserves to be there in the end and who doesn't.

HC

Episode 9 - Screw Job

To Exile: none

Tribes merged.

For the immunity challenge the players were randomly put into two groups:

Group 1: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Edguardo & Yau-man
Group 2: Alex, Dre, Michelle, Mookie & Stacey

The losing group went to tribal council.

Voted Out: Michelle

Votes:Alex, Dre & Stacey voted Michelle
Michelle & Mookie voted Stacey

Who's Left: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Earl, Edguardo, Mookie, Stacey & Yau-man

HC' Take:

Man, I hate these random elements! They're turning Survivor more into a game of Russian roulette than something you need to develop a game plan for. If the producers of Survivor really want to take control of the game away from the players, why not just start taking them out randomly?

Anyway, although I feel bad for Michelle - she was well placed in the game and did nothing to facilitate this outcome - I can't blame those who voted for her for doing so. In fact, anything else would have been a mistake. Even Mookie is better off with Michelle gone. I know he saw her as his ally but I believe he was sitting, at best, fifth in Earl's mind while Michelle was likely third. Michelle wouldn't have been able to protect him and wouldn't have risked her position to stab Earl. Now Earl has a void to fill and if Mookie can play his cards right (which he won't) he could fill that void.

Although Mookie and Dre both see themselves as playing brilliantly thus far, they're not. They are not highly valued by either of the power players in this game and they can't continue to play both sides. It won't work. I was also disappointed with Alex's and Ed's decision to target Boo (even though that opportunity was taken away from them). Alex seems to think this will force Stacey to side with him but it could so easily backfire. Stacey could easily walk into Michelle's vacant position too. Alex, if you want to kill the beast, shoot for the head and target Earl. There are just too many players trying to manage too many people in this game. Build your alliance, stick with 'em, and screw everyone else. It ain't rocket science.

Thur far, Earl and Yau-man are playing the best game, but here went another opportunity for them to throw a challenge. With Yau on the stick recovering pieces and he and Earl doing the puzzle at the end, the opportunity was there without it even looking suspicious. Earl, Yau and Cassandra gets rid of Edguardo and the wind is taken right out of Alex's sails.

HC

Episode 8 - "Loser!"

To Exile: Lisi

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Lisi

Votes:Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Mookie voted Lisi
Lisi voted Lisi

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Mookie

HC' Take:

When Alex and Eguardo look back upon how they played, while sipping cocktails at Loser Lodge, they will likely both agree that this was the moment when they lost their game. Truth is, I think they were doomed when they first hitched up with the unstable crew they decided to make an alliance with. If I were them, right after the swap I would have been very tempted to have teamed up with Dre with the plan of disposing of Lisi down the road.

But the thing is, they need her now. Dre knows exactly where he stands with Alex and Edguardo now. At the merge, Cassandra will stick with Earl and company and they've got to know that the chance of Dre hitching his cart to her's, taking Mookie with him, is very high. If she needed to be dragged kicking and screaming into the merge, then they needed to do that. She may be unstable but their pool of support is very shallow. They don't have the option of being picky.

So was voting out Lisi a mistake for Alex and Ed? Absolutely, though I'm not too impressed with their alternative of targeting former team mate Dre as opposed to Mookie. In fact, I'm coming to the realization that their isn't going to be much in the way of brilliant game play from any of these contestants. Earl and Yau-man don't even seem to want to consider the possibility of throwing challenges despite Alex and Edguardo likely booting another ex-Ravu. If the Moto five (Alex-Edguardo-Lisi-Boo-Stacey) were as tight as they should be, they should be able to run this game. But they're not, leaving Earl and Yau-man the likely duo to end up on the top of the totem, not because of their great play, but because of their opposition's inability to get their act together.

It is funny to think that the old Moto's are currently up 6-4 (even with the Lisi boot) and they are likely to end up on the losing end of a merge. One word for future Survivor contestants: team!

Anyway, changing tack. We're now down to ten players which is the traditional time for a merge. Whether their is a merge or not, I figure now is a good time for this question.

1. Based upon what you've seen so far, who are the three players most likely to win this game?

HC

Episode 7 - It's An All Guy Affair

To Exile: Earl

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Rocky

Votes:
Alex, Dre, Edguardo & Lisi voted Rocky
Mookie & Rocky voted Lisi

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Edguardo, Lisi & Mookie

HC' Take:

With every episode, I am more convinced that Rocky should have gone a long time ago. Edguardo made the point that he felt Rocky's negativity likely played no small part in Ravu's pitiful record. The majority of challenges are about teamwork. In that light contributing positively towards the group is more important than how much muscle you bring to the table. In this testosterone filled season, that seems to have been forgotten. The only problem I have with the boot is that Rocky made the jury (oh, why couldn't he have gone last week). I'm also good with Dreemz decision to not vote Lisi. He can't depend on Alex and Eguardo to work with him, but Rocky and Mookie hardly present a better option. They certainly are not of enough value for him to risk the outcome of a tie vote on. Right now, Dre's best option is to do what he can to make the merge and then to re-explore his options at that time.

VS.

With the traditional merge only one more boot away, this is really shaping up to be battle between two pairs: Earl & Yau-man, Alex & Edguardo. Their success or failure is, as always, going to be dependent on their ability to build a solid supporting cast, so let's looking at that supporting cast.

Earl/Yau-man: Michelle, Cassandra
Alex/Edguardo: Lisi, Boo, Stacey
Free Agents: Dre, Mookie

At first it looks like Alex/Edguardo have the edge, but there are a number of disadvantages facing them.

1. At least one more player is likely to go before the merge and if Earl and Yau-man have their wits about them, they should throw the next challenge and boot Boo. In fact, as pointed out by KFG last week, they should have already started throwing challenges.
2. As far as perceived threat goes, Alex/Edguardo rank way higher than Earl/Yau-man, and season after season have shown us that players are all over who they perceive as a threat (ie: young, strong, males). Free agents like Mookie and Dre are more likely to drift toward the Earl/Yau-man camp. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alex/Eguardo's whole support structure disappear from under them because of this. This brings me to the next point.
3. Michelle and Cassandra are far more dependable than Lisi, Boo & Stacey. These last three players have already demonstrated themselves to be both aggressive and shortsighted - a very dangerous combination for anyone that is relying on them. Survivor's most successful players have been able to fill the supporting rolls in their alliances with passive-predictable players. Michelle and Cassandra could easily be these players. Lisi, Boo and Stacey are almost certainly not.
4. And, just to add insult to injury, Yau-man has hidden immunity and is even crafty enough to construct a fake totem and stick it in the ground in it's place. This could easily be the final nail in the coffin for their competition.

My money is on Earl and Yau-man taking this deep.

HC

Episode 6 - Testosterone Overload

Right off the top, the tribes were called to an apparent reward challenge. There, Probst asked a player from each tribe to step forward. After Earl and Edguardo did so, they were told they were picking new tribes. They each picked in turn, the rule being they had to select their person from the other tribe. Here's how the picks went.

New Ravu: Edguardo->Mookie->Alex->Rocky->Dre->Anthony

New Moto: Earl->Boo->Michelle->Cassandra->Yau-man->Stacey

Lisi was left unpicked and sent to Exile Island, later to join whichever tribe loses the immunity challenge after they voted someone out.

To Exile: Lisi

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Anthony

Votes:
Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Mookie & Rocky voted Anthony
Anthony voted Rocky

Who's Left:
Moto: Boo, Cassandra, Earl, Michelle, Stacey & Yau-man
Ravu: Alex, Dre, Eguardo, Lisi, Mookie & Rocky

In Ravu, Anthony made a last ditch attempt to swing the vote to the volatile Rocky but it was too little too late. Alex, clearly the leader, had to decide whom to pull over as their fourth. Explaining his reasons in a confessional (Rocky is too unpredictable and Anthony had his head out of the game) he chose Mookie. In Moto, Cassandra jumped when given the opportunity to join up with Earl and company leaving Boo and Stacey on the outside.

HC's Take:

Let's start with grouping the members of these two tribes. It's pretty easy now.

Moto: (Cassandra->Earl<=>Yau-man<-Michelle), Boo<=>Stacey
Ravu: Edguardo<=>Alex<-Dre, Mookie<=>Rocky, Lisi

What's interesting about how the tribes split is that the folks in charge at both tribes have their best people with them. Earl seemed to have a good relationship with Anthony but he's gone. Alex's best ally is Edguardo but he was certainly feeling uncomfortable with Lisi and Stacey, and likely by extension, Boo. I would take Dre over any one of these three any day. What will be interesting to observe next episode is how Lisi is received and, if Ravu loses another immunity challenge, who it is they boot. (In Moto, it's hard to imagine them not booting Stacey.) What is interesting in the end is that the alliances that are being formed now (especially in Moto) may be stronger than what we had before the swap.

Anyway, on to the boot. Personally, I don't think Rocky provides nearly as much to winning challenges as folks seem to think he does. The guy's intense, but he more than offsets that with volatility and general "boneheadedness". Anthony, in the meantime, provides a lot of support on the home front and that shouldn't be undervalued. Like I said, in challenges, I think it's a wash between these two.

So that brings us to who would make the more stable alliance mate? This is tougher than it might appear. Rocky seems tight with Mookie, but how tight is he with the Ravu ex-patriots: Earl, Michelle & Yau-man? My guess is not very, but he is a tough player to predict the actions for. In the meantime, Anthony is a more predictable player but may go back to Earl and company come a merge if given the opportunity. Again, it's close to being a wash.

So that brings us to the final factor, who contributes more to producing a functional (and therefore winning) tribe. For me, this player is Anthony. Unfortunately, Anthony gave the impression that he had already checked-out of this game which is what Alex gave as his reason for not bringing him into his alliance. If Anthony had showed some of the fire that he showed in that final tribal council earlier, I strongly suspect that it would have been Rocky taking the walk the other night.

And the tribe would have been better off for it! Ravu is now on testosterone overload. They have too many leaders and too many negative personalities (especially once Lisi returns). To have removed Rocky at this stage would have made the dynamic of the group better. I wouldn't be surprised if Ravu continues to lose challenges because of this.

Questions of the Week:

1. What do you think of each player's pick during the swap?


2. What two players most benefited from the swap?


3. What two players (other than Anthony) were most screwed by the swap?

HC

Episode 5 - Delayed, But Here

To Exile: Earl

Losing Tribe: Ravu

Voted Out: Rita

Votes:
Anthony, Earl, James, Mookie & Yau-man voted Rita
Rita & Michelle voted Anthony

Who's Left:
Moto: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre, Edgardo, Lisi, Stacey
Rotu: Anthony, Earl, James, Michelle, Mookie, Yau-man

I was able to catch the episode in our hotel room in Washington.

Ravu continues its losing streak that must now be rivalling Ulong from Survivor-Vanuatu. Ulong, at least, won a couple of rewards as I recall. The preview seems to indicate there is a swap coming up next episode. Thank God!

Michelle and Rita clearly had some sort of relationship, but it was the boys calling the shots and they seemed to feel removing Rita left them with the most functional tribe. Over at Moto, Alex was trying to convince his alliance mates to treat Cassandra and Dre with at least a bit of respect as they could easily get burned by them flipping down the road. His pleads fell on deaf hears on all but Edguardo. Lisi seemed to actually enjoy the thought of a flip, never doubting for a second that they will end up on top. Bizarre! In a confessional, Dre said straight out that he will flip at the first opportunity and who can blame him.

HC's Take:

The boot was another lame one. I find it hard to disagree with, but it leaves a bit of a bitter taste as part of the equation of the boots seems to be trying appease Rocky (James). It's not that Rocky holds any real power in this tribe, but Yau-man and Earl see him as their workhorse in the challenges and the tribe is strongest if they can keep him functioning as well as they can. They're probably right, but it would have been interesting to have seen how this tribe would have fared if they removed Rocky right at the start instead of all the people he doesn't get along with.

Lisi's and Stacey's obnoxious behaviour towards Dre and Cassandra is incomprehensible to me, not just from a gaming standpoint (the pitfalls being clearly spelled out by Alex) but just from treating another human being with some dignity. It's sad. That the Moto Five will fall is obvious, but I hope that Alex and Edgardo aren't the first to pay the price for Lisi's and Stacey's arrogance.

I like the way that Earl was helping Yau-man to find hidden immunity, even though it didn't pan out. I hope these two will continue to work together, though with a swap coming it will be interesting to find out at which camp they will end up when each of them knows pretty much where hidden immunity is.

Looking forward to this week's ep. After the swap, this game should really begin.

HC

Episode 5 (and maybe 6) - A Pre-Post

Well, here's another episode or two that I'm going to miss. The fam and I are off on vacation, heading for sunnier climes. This Thursday I will be in your fair capital of Washington ('your' if you are American that is) and by the following Thursday I will be with my parents in Florida.

I'm not sure if I will get a chance to post stuff or not. If I can, I will, but I if I can't feel free to add any observations or discussion by adding a comment to this post.

Back soon ...

HC

Episode 4 - And Just Like That, We're Tied

Evacuated: Gary
To Exile: Yau-man


Losing Tribe: Ravu


Voted Out: Liliana

Votes:
Alex, Boo, Edgardo, Lisi & Stacey voted Liliana
Dreemz & Liliana voted Cassandra
Cassandra voted Lisi

Gary's health continued to worsen until he was forced to leave the game. Despite that, the tribes went to an immunity challenge as per normal and, once again, Moto won, but with a twist - to keep immunity, they had to switch camps with the other tribe. Obviously from the outcome above, they decided to pass immunity to Ravu.

The episode, and the voting, revealed an obvious alliance in Alex-Boo-Edgardo-Lisi-Stacey and they had two people they were going between. Alex championed voting out Cassandra, obviously the least competative of the group in the challenges. However, Lisi argued to remove Liliana, a strong competitor and obvious threat. You can see where the votes went.

HC's Take:

The decision to switch camps or vote someone out is a tough one. One the one hand, you have the oportunity to be up eight to six on your opposition and with recent episodes usually having swaps, being up in numbers early is very important. On the other hand, plenty of food, water and sleep has played no small part in Moto being in the position that they are. If they switched camps and there was no swap, they could easily find themselves in the same position as Ravu in a few more tribal councils.

The thing is, the mistake of voting out Liliana overshadows any mistake they may have made with their decision as to what to do with Probst's surprise anyway. The over-convidence displayed by Lisi was almost beyond belief. Lady, you are tied and anything can happen tomorrow including a swap that will likely see your precious alliance broken up. Moreover, the booting of Liliana by this group of five is sure to create unnecessary divisions in this tribe. Cassandra would have been an easy boot that would have left very few ill feelings. Combine that with the fact that the tribe is physically stronger with Cassandra gone instead of Liliana and it becomes obvious this boot was a mistake. Whatever threat that Liliana represents to Lisi and company, can be dealt with later. Right now the priority should be to bury Ravu.

I'm glad this episode finally gave us some insight into Moto. Lisi was completely unimpressive. Alex seems to be the only one with his wits about him. He recognized right away that losing Gary was a bad thing (unlike Lisi) and that booting Liliana was a dumb move. He did the right thing in vocalizing his objections to his alliance but, in the end, voting with them when they couldn't be swayed. That we were shown this alliance outright is almost a sure sign that they won't be around in the end, but I hope Alex can land on his feet when the rug gets pulled out from under them.

HC

Episode 3 - AWOL

Losing Tribe: Ravu

To Exile: Sylvia
Voted Out: Sylvia

Anthony, Earl, Michelle & Yau-Man voted Sylvia
James & Sylvia voted Anthony
Rita voted Earl


HC's Take:

Alright, I missed the ep. A school function had me busy last night.

From what I understand, Ravu is falling apart and is no longer competitive. Too bad. They had a couple of tough loses early on that, had they gone the other way, could have easily made a huge difference despite the difference in living conditions.

Hopefully, there will be a swap soon (Lord, I never thought I would here myself say that).

All and all, I can't argue with the boot choice again. I suppose the votes on Anthony were in case Sylvia had hidden immunity, but what was the deal with Rita's vote? Is she completely out of the loop?

Other than that, there really aren't any observations I can make, but I have some questions.

1. Are we getting any more insight into the structure of Moto? These folks haven't really been put to the test so any groupings could still be very flexible.
2. Would Moto stick together if there was a swap?
3. Any indications as to who the key decision makers are in either tribe?

I guess that's it for now. Sorry, I promose to watch next week.

HC

Episode 2 - Ravu's Problems Aren't Over Yet

Losing Tribe: Ravu

To Exile: Earl

Voted Out: Erica

James, Michelle, Mookey, Rita, Silvia & Yau-man voted Erica

Anthony & Erica voted Sylvia

First off, I think Erica was fine as a boot. She is an issolated player that can be removed without raising the ire of anyone in the camp. Heck, even her only former ally in James was a chief proponent for her eviction. What I found interesting was Anthony's counter-play to get rid of Sylvia. He seemed to feel he had Rita's vote and potentially two others but they weren't there for him in the end. Perhaps the others got cold feet and didn't want to risk the tie, but why was Anthony out of the loop? Who was his four and, I think more importantly, who was the four that were so rock solid in voting Erica that they couldn't be swayed?

I likely wasn't paying as much attention as I should have and missed who was in some of the groups in the post loss discussions. Obviously, James and Silvia were firmly voting Erica. I think I have to also add Mookey. Anthony had Erica and, he thought, Rita. That leaves Michelle and Yau-man to split between the two groups. I thought it interesting that Yau-man appeared absent for all the conversations.

I don't know, but what I don't like is who is appearing to be controlling the game here. James was foolish in dumping on Erica so quickly after they were allies just a few days ago. He is unlikely to get in tight with any group now, yet he and Mookey seemed to have enough influence to get Erica out of there. I also don't like that others, besides Silvia, are not stepping into a leadership roll. This tribe needs a respected leader and that isn't Silvia or James. Unfortunately, I'm worried others might think it a good strategy to hide behind them. This type of play is not a good idea as is likely to intefere with this tribe gelling.

So in the end, I'm good with the boot but I'm less high on this tribe getting their act together. The bad news is they've got to get their act together soon or the potential for disaster for the lot of them is significant. The good news, the divisions and bitterness in the tribe don't seem strong. They are coming to the crossroad very quickly.

As for Moto, I have no take on them at all, other than sending Earl to Exile was not the right decision. It is unlikely to be a big deal, but they should have sent Silvia again only to keep the pool of who might have hidden immunity down to one. Guessing who has this powerful weapon down the road could easily turn out to be very important

One thing I do like. It appears both tribes are trying hard to bury the other. The tribe that can stay focused on that instead of internal battles is likely the one to come out on top.

HC

Episode 1 - When "Askew" Is A Big Word

Well, here we go again, but I've got to say, I have a good feeling about this crew. Instead of half populating the island with young, twenty-somethings, they seem to have gone for more of a cultural mix. Perhaps the producers have learned something from the success of Cook Islands. The average age seems older and the background more diverse. I'm actually, cautiously, optimistic.

This time 'round we start with nineteen players (apparently due to a last minute bail out that left Probst and company scrambling). They spent two nights on one beach living in relative luxury being provided with lumber, tools, and plans to build one kick-ass settlement.

But you know that isn't going to last. Day three saw them split up. Having being identified as a leader, Sylvia was told to split up the tribes. She herself was sent to Exile Island, after which she would join the tribe that lost the immunity/reward challenge (quite the raw deal if you ask me). Further more, the losing tribe would be moved to a new beach with barely any supplies.


Here's how the tribes shook down.

Moto: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre (aka: Dreemz), Edgardo, Gary (aka: Papa Smurf), Liliana, Lisi & Stacey.
Ravu: Anthony, Earl, Erica, James (aka: Rocky), Jessica, Michelle, Mookey, Rita & Yau-Man
Exiled: Sylvia

Sylvia seemed to go through efforts to create two fairly balanced tribes (she herself didn't appear to be in any kind of alliance) which showed in the closely fought challenge.

Ravu lost the challenge, however, and voted out Jessica.

Votes:
Anthony, Earl, Michelle, Mookie, Rita & Yau-Man voted Jessica
Erica voted Yau-Man
James voted Mookie
Jessica voted Rita

HC's Take:

It's tough enough trying to remember who is who (especially with nineteen players!) let alone figure out potential voting blocks, but the show clearly showed Erica make an early pact with Jessica (too early in my opinion). It was also very clear that the two ladies had James in their corner. However, popular consensus of the tribe (lead by Yau-Man) was leaning to Jessica who performed poorly during the challenge. Erica knew Jessica was the target and ran straight to James. It's possible that any counter-play on their part wasn't shown, but it sure appears that they did little to try and steer the vote in another direction. Foolish on their part as the six that voted Jessica are hardly a tight crew (Anthony in particular seemed reluctant on the idea). It's possible they may have gotten something else to happen. Scattering their votes around the way they did doesn't accomplish anything.

Personally, I agree with the call made by the majority. Tribe harmony is the key here. It's not that Jessica was particularly disruptive, but she represents the path-of-least resistance. I don't think anyone really stands out right now as bringing the tribe down, so she makes a good, relatively easy, boot.

It will be interesting to observe how Sylvia is greeted upon her return from Exile Island, but I think she will get along well with the dominant group on this tribe. James will likely fall into a grunt roll and will be worth keeping for a while, but Erica should feel pretty uncomfortable in her position. Unless someone else really sticks themselves out there, she is the next logical boot from this tribe. All and all, the potential for this tribe to gell well is there.

It will also be interesting to see how the haves vs. the have-nots will work out. I'm not sure having so much provided for them is going to work to Moto's advantage. It is going to be very difficult to build a strong sense of team if you have it too easy. As long as Ravu can keep themselves fed and hydrated, they stand a very good chance of getting the better over Moto.

HC

Survivor Strategy 5.0

What a long and crazy road it's been.

My obsession with Survivor began in their second season, Survivor-Australia. Specifically the Jerri vote. Before that I was only a casual watcher, mostly there because my wife had been going on about the show since Borneo (which I completely missed due to it being a summer fill in - I just don't watch TV in the summer). When Jerri got the boot and it was clear that we had a crew of people actually playing a game as opposed voting for a prom queen, I became hooked.

Over the years my interests have waxed and waned with each season. When players were stupid, petty and vindictive, I tuned out, but when there was actual game play going on (whether it was good, bad or ugly) I was right back into it. As with most of my obsessions, they manifested themselves into reams of text, charts and graphs which are still all kicking around at my website.

Survivor Strategy 1.0

After half a dozen seasons or so posting analysis there my enthusiasm for the project began to finally temper a bit. For a season (S7 - Pearl Islands) I merely contented myself with posting a my favourite Survivor Board - Voted Off.

Survivor Strategy 2.0

With the prospect an All-Star edition (S8) I became excited again and started up the voting analysis once more but it soon become apparent that season was not exactly going to be filled with brilliant game play. After the miserable conclusion to S9 (Vanuatu) I packed in the website and little has happened there since. But I was dragged back during S11-Guatemala through a friend's blog.

Survivor Strategy 3.0

The previous season, S10-Palau, was a refreshing joy to watch despite all the good players ending on the same tribe making the first half of the season incredibly lopsided causing the Ulong tribe (led by the mysteriously fan-popular Stephanie and Bobby Jon) to go down in well deserved agony. It was great, but what does CBS do? They bring back the leaders of the lamest tribe of all time for the next season which, predictably, turned out to be one of the lamest seasons of all time. Go figure? Well, I was not to be deterred, even when AJV found he could no longer keep the blog going. I had already created a movie blog with Rotten Tomatoes, so I decided to pick it up there.

Survivor Strategy 4.0

I began posting regularly again for S12-Exile Island and S13-Cook Islands - one lame and one good season (I'll leave you to decide which I thought was which).

So with S14-Fiji around the corner, here I am at Blogger, trying to spread the word that Survivor doesn't have to be about petty, juvenile, egos trying to decide who the coolest kid on the beach is. It can be a game and, perhaps, it can actually be a game that can be played well.

I invite you to join the discussion.

HC