Thursday, February 15, 2007

Episode 2 - Ravu's Problems Aren't Over Yet

Losing Tribe: Ravu

To Exile: Earl
Voted Out: Erica

James, Michelle, Mookey, Rita, Silvia & Yau-man voted Erica
Anthony & Erica voted Sylvia

First off, I think Erica was fine as a boot. She is an issolated player that can be removed without raising the ire of anyone in the camp. Heck, even her only former ally in James was a chief proponent for her eviction. What I found interesting was Anthony's counter-play to get rid of Sylvia. He seemed to feel he had Rita's vote and potentially two others but they weren't there for him in the end. Perhaps the others got cold feet and didn't want to risk the tie, but why was Anthony out of the loop? Who was his four and, I think more importantly, who was the four that were so rock solid in voting Erica that they couldn't be swayed?

I likely wasn't paying as much attention as I should have and missed who was in some of the groups in the post loss discussions. Obviously, James and Silvia were firmly voting Erica. I think I have to also add Mookey. Anthony had Erica and, he thought, Rita. That leaves Michelle and Yau-man to split between the two groups. I thought it interesting that Yau-man appeared absent for all the conversations.

I don't know, but what I don't like is who is appearing to be controlling the game here. James was foolish in dumping on Erica so quickly after they were allies just a few days ago. He is unlikely to get in tight with any group now, yet he and Mookey seemed to have enough influence to get Erica out of there. I also don't like that others, besides Silvia, are not stepping into a leadership roll. This tribe needs a respected leader and that isn't Silvia or James. Unfortunately, I'm worried others might think it a good strategy to hide behind them. This type of play is not a good idea as is likely to intefere with this tribe gelling.

So in the end, I'm good with the boot but I'm less high on this tribe getting their act together. The bad news is they've got to get their act together soon or the potential for disaster for the lot of them is significant. The good news, the divisions and bitterness in the tribe don't seem strong. They are coming to the crossroad very quickly.

As for Moto, I have no take on them at all, other than sending Earl to Exile was not the right decision. It is unlikely to be a big deal, but they should have sent Silvia again only to keep the pool of who might have hidden immunity down to one. Guessing who has this powerful weapon down the road could easily turn out to be very important

One thing I do like. It appears both tribes are trying hard to bury the other. The tribe that can stay focused on that instead of internal battles is likely the one to come out on top.

HC


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I doubt Anthony's stray vote is a big deal. I suspect he and Erica gave each other their word they would never vote for each other -- and he was honoring that commitment. From the conversations shown, it seems he may be close with Rita and Earl. Not sure if the fourth is Michelle, Yao-Man or someone else.

My beef with the show so far is the lopsided conditions for the two tribes -- other than a purely mental challenge, or a lucky break, I don't see how Ravu can win a single challenge. In a dehydrated and hungry state, they are no match for the well-fed, well-rested Moto tribe.

The fact that we've hardly even met a couple of people on Moto, says to me Ravu will continue to lose members until a swap or break-up occurs.

It'll be sad if this ends up happening, as it diminishes the strategic implications of a merge and really doesn't give any of the Ravu tribe a fair shake at the game.

AbstractMind said...

I agree with everything you said so far.

I also agree that I'm not a huge fan of the lopsided camp conditions.

O, and they really should have sent Sylvia to Exile Island, since she was an isolated player and the only one so far to have gotten a clue for the immunity. O well.

HCIsland said...

The fact that we've hardly even met a couple of people on Moto, says to me Ravu will continue to lose members until a swap or break-up occurs.

Yeah, last ep gave me that vibe too. I hope we're wrong though.

other than a purely mental challenge, or a lucky break, I don't see how Ravu can win a single challenge.

I'm not so sure. On the physical aspects of both challenges, Ravu showed themselves the stronger. They rowed much faster than Moto and the week before they pulled the chariot much faster too. Where they fell down both times was in solving puzzles.

There's little doubt, Ravu wants it more and perhaps that has them more frantic when they have to calm themselves to solve a puzzle.

I doubt Anthony's stray vote is a big deal. I suspect he and Erica gave each other their word they would never vote for each other -- and he was honoring that commitment. From the conversations shown, it seems he may be close with Rita and Earl.

That could easily explain Anthony's vote. Anthony, Rita and Earl do same a likely group. I think the rest is pretty loose right now. Earl seems to me a more natural leader than Silvia. Hopefully, he can step up to the plate. If he can get the backing of Yau-man (who obviously carries respect too), the rest may just fall in line and we could have ourselves a well functioning tribe.

I'm still not ready to write off Ravu. Moto seems to be doing their best to stay focused but that could remain difficult if too many of them begin to think they have this thing in the bag.

HC