Friday, February 9, 2007

Episode 1 - When "Askew" Is A Big Word

Well, here we go again, but I've got to say, I have a good feeling about this crew. Instead of half populating the island with young, twenty-somethings, they seem to have gone for more of a cultural mix. Perhaps the producers have learned something from the success of Cook Islands. The average age seems older and the background more diverse. I'm actually, cautiously, optimistic.

This time 'round we start with nineteen players (apparently due to a last minute bail out that left Probst and company scrambling). They spent two nights on one beach living in relative luxury being provided with lumber, tools, and plans to build one kick-ass settlement.

But you know that isn't going to last. Day three saw them split up. Having being identified as a leader, Sylvia was told to split up the tribes. She herself was sent to Exile Island, after which she would join the tribe that lost the immunity/reward challenge (quite the raw deal if you ask me). Further more, the losing tribe would be moved to a new beach with barely any supplies.


Here's how the tribes shook down.

Moto: Alex, Boo, Cassandra, Dre (aka: Dreemz), Edgardo, Gary (aka: Papa Smurf), Liliana, Lisi & Stacey.
Ravu: Anthony, Earl, Erica, James (aka: Rocky), Jessica, Michelle, Mookey, Rita & Yau-Man
Exiled: Sylvia

Sylvia seemed to go through efforts to create two fairly balanced tribes (she herself didn't appear to be in any kind of alliance) which showed in the closely fought challenge.

Ravu lost the challenge, however, and voted out Jessica.

Votes:
Anthony, Earl, Michelle, Mookie, Rita & Yau-Man voted Jessica
Erica voted Yau-Man
James voted Mookie
Jessica voted Rita

HC's Take:

It's tough enough trying to remember who is who (especially with nineteen players!) let alone figure out potential voting blocks, but the show clearly showed Erica make an early pact with Jessica (too early in my opinion). It was also very clear that the two ladies had James in their corner. However, popular consensus of the tribe (lead by Yau-Man) was leaning to Jessica who performed poorly during the challenge. Erica knew Jessica was the target and ran straight to James. It's possible that any counter-play on their part wasn't shown, but it sure appears that they did little to try and steer the vote in another direction. Foolish on their part as the six that voted Jessica are hardly a tight crew (Anthony in particular seemed reluctant on the idea). It's possible they may have gotten something else to happen. Scattering their votes around the way they did doesn't accomplish anything.

Personally, I agree with the call made by the majority. Tribe harmony is the key here. It's not that Jessica was particularly disruptive, but she represents the path-of-least resistance. I don't think anyone really stands out right now as bringing the tribe down, so she makes a good, relatively easy, boot.

It will be interesting to observe how Sylvia is greeted upon her return from Exile Island, but I think she will get along well with the dominant group on this tribe. James will likely fall into a grunt roll and will be worth keeping for a while, but Erica should feel pretty uncomfortable in her position. Unless someone else really sticks themselves out there, she is the next logical boot from this tribe. All and all, the potential for this tribe to gell well is there.

It will also be interesting to see how the haves vs. the have-nots will work out. I'm not sure having so much provided for them is going to work to Moto's advantage. It is going to be very difficult to build a strong sense of team if you have it too easy. As long as Ravu can keep themselves fed and hydrated, they stand a very good chance of getting the better over Moto.

HC

2 comments:

AbstractMind said...

I like the new home!

As far as you analysis goes, I pretty much agree with everything you said.

Not much to say yet. Let's see how this season progresses.

HCIsland said...

Thanks, Abstract. I'm glad you're here.

There isn't much to talk of strategy wise, but what did crack my up was the little exchange between Rocky and Sylvia that I refered to in my post title.

Scene: Building the shelter

Sylvia: That's a little askew

Rocky: Okay, whenever anyone uses a big word we are all going to stop for a moment.

[editor's note: askew has five letters]

Rocky: What does ass-choo mean?

Sylvia: It means it's not orthogonal.

I'm so glad these two are still on the same tribe!

HC