Thursday, March 1, 2007

Episode 4 - And Just Like That, We're Tied


Evacuated: Gary
To Exile: Yau-man


Losing Tribe: Ravu


Voted Out: Liliana

Votes:
Alex, Boo, Edgardo, Lisi & Stacey voted Liliana
Dreemz & Liliana voted Cassandra
Cassandra voted Lisi

Gary's health continued to worsen until he was forced to leave the game. Despite that, the tribes went to an immunity challenge as per normal and, once again, Moto won, but with a twist - to keep immunity, they had to switch camps with the other tribe. Obviously from the outcome above, they decided to pass immunity to Ravu.

The episode, and the voting, revealed an obvious alliance in Alex-Boo-Edgardo-Lisi-Stacey and they had two people they were going between. Alex championed voting out Cassandra, obviously the least competative of the group in the challenges. However, Lisi argued to remove Liliana, a strong competitor and obvious threat. You can see where the votes went.

HC's Take:

The decision to switch camps or vote someone out is a tough one. One the one hand, you have the oportunity to be up eight to six on your opposition and with recent episodes usually having swaps, being up in numbers early is very important. On the other hand, plenty of food, water and sleep has played no small part in Moto being in the position that they are. If they switched camps and there was no swap, they could easily find themselves in the same position as Ravu in a few more tribal councils.

The thing is, the mistake of voting out Liliana overshadows any mistake they may have made with their decision as to what to do with Probst's surprise anyway. The over-convidence displayed by Lisi was almost beyond belief. Lady, you are tied and anything can happen tomorrow including a swap that will likely see your precious alliance broken up. Moreover, the booting of Liliana by this group of five is sure to create unnecessary divisions in this tribe. Cassandra would have been an easy boot that would have left very few ill feelings. Combine that with the fact that the tribe is physically stronger with Cassandra gone instead of Liliana and it becomes obvious this boot was a mistake. Whatever threat that Liliana represents to Lisi and company, can be dealt with later. Right now the priority should be to bury Ravu.

I'm glad this episode finally gave us some insight into Moto. Lisi was completely unimpressive. Alex seems to be the only one with his wits about him. He recognized right away that losing Gary was a bad thing (unlike Lisi) and that booting Liliana was a dumb move. He did the right thing in vocalizing his objections to his alliance but, in the end, voting with them when they couldn't be swayed. That we were shown this alliance outright is almost a sure sign that they won't be around in the end, but I hope Alex can land on his feet when the rug gets pulled out from under them.

HC

2 comments:

HCIsland said...

I thought I would throw in my take the players that are left. I like the labels developed by AJV some time ago.

PP: passive-predictable
PU: passive-unpredictable
AP: aggressive-predictable
AU: aggressive-unpredictable

Moto:
Alex - AP: I think he may be the best player on this tribe.
Boo - tough call. Seems to me to be the leader during challenges, but not in his alliance.
Cassandra - PP all the way
Dreemz - PU: get rid of this guy
Edgardo - no idea
Lisi - AU: very dangerous person to have in charge.
Stacey - not sure: leaning to AU because I think her and Lisi are calling the shots.

Rotu:
Anthony - A?: I think, given a chance, this guy can show us something but I'm not sure as to his predictability. I'm leaning to AP.
Earl - PP: I think he's a leader around camp but I don't think he has what it takes to go far.
Michelle - ???
Rocky - AU all the way. Needs to go.
Mookey - PP: This guy's a grunt. Keep him for now and dispose of him later.
Rita - ???
Yau-man - ?P. I think this guy can be a very dependable player. The question is whether he can be aggressive enough? I would lean to yes.

Anonymous said...

Intriguing episode... anybody else get the feeling that the show made the twist on the challenge because they didn't want to see one tribe completely dominate?

It's tied 7-7 and the game could go either way now. I'm honestly not sure what to expect. Moto has won every challenge and has the conditions but I feel like momentum is shifting towards Rotu. I honestly think whoever wins the reward challenge next week will grab the momentum for the challenges going into the merge.

Tough decision whether to go to tribal council or the other camp. I think I would've taken the other camp as you would only have to win 1 of the next 4 challenges to at least be tied going into the merge (presuming it's at 10). Instead, they are tied. But very tough decision.

My input on the players: Agree with most descriptions. Dreemz, I say AU - he brought the whole tribe together to try to talk about who to vote out. He definitely seemed like he was trying to take charge. Rita - would go with PU. Definitely seems U as she voted on her own the other week for no reason. Going with P since she didn't seem to try to lead people towards that vote.

Will be interesting to see this week.